CNews: Let’s start with the question on everyone’s mind: the wave of IT layoffs that began in October 2024 — is this already a crisis, an early sign of one, or just a temporary setback?
Arseniy Fedotkin: I believe it’s too early to draw firm conclusions. What we can say is that the number of IT vacancies dropped significantly in Q1 2025. Several major companies began optimizing their IT workforce back in late 2024, and that trend has carried over into this year. Indirectly, this signals a slowdown in market growth.
Most key players are taking a wait-and-see approach until spring, perhaps even summer, showing caution in IT hiring. This conservative stance is primarily driven by the extreme volatility of the global economy, which strongly influences the Russian market and, by extension, the labor landscape.
CNews: What positive and negative trends do you see as you reflect on 2024 and plan the next period for Selecty?
Fedotkin: Optimism is an important driver of business success, but a balanced and realistic outlook is essential for long-term results. Our current strategy is built on caution in decision-making. We’re not rushing to make optimistic forecasts, but we believe the first half of the year will bring more clarity and that the digital technology market will regain momentum.
Our confidence is grounded in hard data. According to official statistics, over the past five years, the share of the IT sector in Russia’s GDP has grown by more than 70%, reaching 2.2% by the end of 2024, about 4 trillion rubles in value. By 2030, official forecasts predict this could rise to over 12 trillion rubles, with more than 80% of companies expected to transition to domestic software within five years. The takeaway? Investment in IT is not slowing down.
Given the current market dynamics, we are also likely to see a wave of mergers and acquisitions, with stronger players absorbing weaker ones. As always, we’ll be keeping an eye out for news opportunities.
CNews: At the end of 2024, we saw widespread reports of mass layoffs at major tech companies. Are you seeing this trend confirmed among your clients?
Fedotkin: Absolutely. These are facts, not rumors. That said, I wouldn’t overdramatize the situation, as conditions differ greatly across our clients. In some cases, layoffs are about maximizing profitability within corporate strategy, or even fundamentally changing business direction. In others, it’s simply adjusting the pace of growth.
CNews: Which industries will continue to sustain (or even increase) demand for IT talent?
Fedotkin: The growth rate of digital transformation leaders has slowed — including the top five banks, the three largest e-commerce players, and major tech firms. Still, these organizations employ hundreds of thousands of specialists and plan to hire tens of thousands more.
In some industries, growth is constrained by a shortage of skilled professionals, so demand is unlikely to decline. For example, the need for cybersecurity experts will only increase as cyber threats continue to rise. Demand for developers and testers involved in import substitution projects, including 1C-based solutions, will also keep growing.
It’s more accurate to talk about demand for specific tech stacks rather than entire industries.
Despite alarmist predictions that AI will replace everyone overnight, and claims that Russia’s software import substitution is already complete, I’m certain it’s far too early to “hang up our boots.” The Ministry of Digital Development and Sberbank are not exaggerating when they predict that demand for skilled IT professionals will nearly double.
Automation and AI are reducing routine tasks, placing greater emphasis on “soft skills” like critical thinking, creativity, adaptability, and a willingness to learn. At the same time, the fundamental academic education still provides a clear advantage in achieving ambitious career and life goals — and that trend is unlikely to change anytime soon.
Arseniy Fedotkin: I believe it’s too early to draw firm conclusions. What we can say is that the number of IT vacancies dropped significantly in Q1 2025. Several major companies began optimizing their IT workforce back in late 2024, and that trend has carried over into this year. Indirectly, this signals a slowdown in market growth.
Most key players are taking a wait-and-see approach until spring, perhaps even summer, showing caution in IT hiring. This conservative stance is primarily driven by the extreme volatility of the global economy, which strongly influences the Russian market and, by extension, the labor landscape.
CNews: What positive and negative trends do you see as you reflect on 2024 and plan the next period for Selecty?
Fedotkin: Optimism is an important driver of business success, but a balanced and realistic outlook is essential for long-term results. Our current strategy is built on caution in decision-making. We’re not rushing to make optimistic forecasts, but we believe the first half of the year will bring more clarity and that the digital technology market will regain momentum.
Our confidence is grounded in hard data. According to official statistics, over the past five years, the share of the IT sector in Russia’s GDP has grown by more than 70%, reaching 2.2% by the end of 2024, about 4 trillion rubles in value. By 2030, official forecasts predict this could rise to over 12 trillion rubles, with more than 80% of companies expected to transition to domestic software within five years. The takeaway? Investment in IT is not slowing down.
Given the current market dynamics, we are also likely to see a wave of mergers and acquisitions, with stronger players absorbing weaker ones. As always, we’ll be keeping an eye out for news opportunities.
CNews: At the end of 2024, we saw widespread reports of mass layoffs at major tech companies. Are you seeing this trend confirmed among your clients?
Fedotkin: Absolutely. These are facts, not rumors. That said, I wouldn’t overdramatize the situation, as conditions differ greatly across our clients. In some cases, layoffs are about maximizing profitability within corporate strategy, or even fundamentally changing business direction. In others, it’s simply adjusting the pace of growth.
CNews: Which industries will continue to sustain (or even increase) demand for IT talent?
Fedotkin: The growth rate of digital transformation leaders has slowed — including the top five banks, the three largest e-commerce players, and major tech firms. Still, these organizations employ hundreds of thousands of specialists and plan to hire tens of thousands more.
In some industries, growth is constrained by a shortage of skilled professionals, so demand is unlikely to decline. For example, the need for cybersecurity experts will only increase as cyber threats continue to rise. Demand for developers and testers involved in import substitution projects, including 1C-based solutions, will also keep growing.
It’s more accurate to talk about demand for specific tech stacks rather than entire industries.
Despite alarmist predictions that AI will replace everyone overnight, and claims that Russia’s software import substitution is already complete, I’m certain it’s far too early to “hang up our boots.” The Ministry of Digital Development and Sberbank are not exaggerating when they predict that demand for skilled IT professionals will nearly double.
Automation and AI are reducing routine tasks, placing greater emphasis on “soft skills” like critical thinking, creativity, adaptability, and a willingness to learn. At the same time, the fundamental academic education still provides a clear advantage in achieving ambitious career and life goals — and that trend is unlikely to change anytime soon.